After Brexit, France will have to assume an increased role at the United Nations on its own
(B2) With the departure of the United Kingdom at the end of March 2019, the Europeans will lose one of their most active members of the Security Council within the United Nations. Will the only remaining permanent member of the EU, France, be able to take up the gauntlet?
The desire to establish cooperation
The departure of the United Kingdom at the end of March does not deprive the Europeans of any mutual exchange. The two parties thus undertake, after Brexit, to cooperate " closely in international organizations and forums, particularly within the United Nations. This is provided for in §98 of the political declaration (1). They also agree on mutual support in these instances: each of the parties should endeavour, where appropriate, " to support their respective positions, to carry out external actions and to manage global challenges in a coherent manner, in particular through declarations, demarches and shared positions ". But it's still a sentence or two. No one knows today how the practical operation will adjust in future reality.
The Europeans lose an important ally
The Europeans are in fact going to lose a very active representative on the Security Council since the British are presenting (and drafting) a third of the resolutions of interest to the Europeans, according to our information. Gold " who holds the pen, keeps the influence ". It is also the British who circulate the most information to the other Member States of the Union and have a real public communication policy. The other permanent member of the Security Council — France — is much less talkative, according to a European expert and according to our own findings.
France must rethink its role
This is also due to a political factor. " Several Member States do not necessarily trust to the French to represent them within the UN. Many saw the UK “ as a counter power to France. According to a European diplomat, there is a long wait from other States, in particular to avoid creating a vacuum. " France has a lot of thinking to do », as well as a work of communication.
A role beyond Brexit
This role will be all the more important as in 2021, there will be the possibility of not having other European representatives as non-permanent members (see box). On the side of the United Kingdom, there will undoubtedly remain certain habits that will continue. The British themselves will have an interest in continuing to play this role of lender to the Europeans.
(Leonor Hubaut, with NGV)
- §98. The Parties should seek to cooperate closely in third countries, including on security, consular provision and protection, and development projects, as well as in international organizations and fora, notably in the United Nations. This should allow the Parties, where relevant, to support each other's positions, deliver external action and manage global challenges in a coherent manner, including through agreed statements, demarches and shared positions.
A European gap by 2021
The European Union currently has five members on the Security Council: the two permanent members (France and the United Kingdom), two elected representatives from Western Europe and others (the Netherlands and Sweden) and one elected for Eastern Europe (Poland). With Brexit, in 2019-2020, it will lose a seat but will keep an advantage since Germany and Belgium were elected for two years (until 2020) and Poland ends its mandate (2018-2019) on a non-permanent seat. For 2021, on the other hand, a gap could be made, with France becoming the sole representative of the European Union, through the interplay of internal alternations in each group (Canada is a candidate in the Europe group).
