Russian war in Ukraine. Terror on the civilian population: a triple win in the short and medium term
(B2) Targeting the civilian population is a clear component of the Russian offensive in Ukraine. Even if it is not assumed.
The 'proper', 'classic' Russian strategy displayed in Ukraine for the 'special' operation (read: Heading for the Donbass and focus on the demilitarization of Ukraine) does not highlight, at least explicitly, the targeting of the civilian population. But it does exist.
A tactic of terror already proven in Syria
It consists in striking where the key points for the civilian population are - hospitals and healthcare centres, supply points and supermarkets, hydroelectric power stations, cultural centres, information points (TV tower, etc.) - in order to restore their impossible life, to sow terror, to lead them to flee.
A method to hit differently
Tactically, this method saves forces, with most strikes being made from the air (or long-range artillery). And it has immediate effects on the adversary as well as on his supporters, in the short and medium term.
Disorganize the rears
In the short term, it cuts the adversary off from his logistical, psychological and assistance fabric. It causes a certain disorganization of the rear who have to manage this influx of displaced persons. It also bears iron on the neighboring countries, those of the European Union, for them to bear the material burden, first of all, economic and social, then, of welcoming refugees.
With a significant medium-term effect
In the medium term, it deprives Ukraine of a large part of its human resources, in particular women and children, the pledge of the country's rebirth. Of which it is not said that they will one day return to Ukraine. Another induced effect is that it leads to political difficulties for Europeans. The permanent reception of refugees, in the long term, could lead to a hardening by ricochet of the populations. At least, that was the (successful) Syrian calculation. And this is the Russian reckoning today.
... but not automatically
However, this effect could backfire. In the short term, if terror fails to create dread but instead creates revolt and resistance, times could be tougher for the Russian military in Ukraine. In the long term, who says settled refugees, says diaspora, in other words an intelligentsia, an economic force like a political weight in the countries concerned. In 20 or 30 years, this advantage will permanently turn in Ukraine's favor compared to Russia, which also has a notable demographic weakness.
(NGV)
