[Analysis] The inexplicable backpedaling of Charles Michel. But what was he going to do in this mess?

(B2) What objective was Charles Michel pursuing by running for the European elections: a career ambition? a political shenanigan? Or, in a romantic outburst, the elegance of the gesture? The renunciation of this candidacy, Friday (January 27), appears all the more hilarious

The very function of President of the European Council seemed to make it impossible to go on an electoral campaign during the mandate (Read: [Decryption] Backpedaling necessary). And yet the former Belgian Prime Minister, now 48 years old, did it. For reasons that are not all clarified.

A desire to confront the voter?

To listen to Charles Michel, or rather his entourage, the liberal leader's desire was not to seek a position. “ Not at all », even says one of his relatives interviewed by B2, the day after the announcement of his departure for the electoral campaign. It was about embodying a more political role for his function. A sort of democratic throw-in. And rather than waiting quietly in " her slippers » that a position was looming, he intended to defend his vision before the voters. “ Not being a candidate would have been a form of escape. Being a candidate means the desire to take on », assures the person concerned himself on the RTBF from January 7 during the wishes of the Reform Movement (MR/Renew). “ It's normal to report to citizens. » In short: Charles Michel believes in a “ authentic democracy ". Commendable beforehand.

Bridging the democratic deficit?

« It seemed natural to me, like a Prime Minister who wishes to continue to serve his country, to confront the vote of voters to defend the European project », explains Charles Michel a few days later in his message on Facebook announcing his withdrawal (from the campaign). “ The democratic deficit of the European Union is regularly highlighted. HAS in my eyes, democracy is legitimacy. And for a political leader, it is election by universal suffrage which is the key to his legitimacy. » Bold in appearance.

A misleading prism

The explanation is not entirely convincing. On the one hand, being head of the list of the reform movement in Wallonia is a very low risk, given the score of the Reform Movement which is around 20%. It would have been different if the person concerned occupied a pivotal position (with a risk of being ineligible) or list pusher, in an ineligible position. It would have been more glorious. Then, the European democratic exercise was not designed in this way in the minds of the drafters of the treaty. It is more the presidential role of the European Parliament, the legislative body, or that of the European Commission, both resulting indirectly from the result of the European elections, which have to be accountable to voters for the policy pursued. Not that of the European Council which is, according to the treaties, not responsible. This one is anything but a “ Head of Government » of Europe (read our decryption). So there is a mistake.

Keep a place warm?

Of course, nothing prevents certain ulterior motives. At the national level, the return of Charles Michel to the fold, stealing the head of the list from Didier Reynders, his great party rival, did not only make people happy. But it had the advantage of putting him back in the saddle in terms of Belgian politics. At the European level, by resigning early, Charles Michel hoped to keep the place of President of the European Council warm for a member of the liberal group: the Dutchman Mark Rutte for example (in case the general secretariat of NATO escapes him ) or another. By putting pressure on his peers to find a replacement before Viktor Orban has to take over (1).

A duel in broad daylight with Ursula?

His candidacy can also be compared to the possible entry into campaign of the President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen. With whom he has had an exacerbated rivalry for several years already, beyond the usual competition between officials of two different institutions. A political duel in the style of the musketeers of the 2th century would not have displeased Charles Michel who dreams of fighting in broad daylight (XNUMX).

A career goal in Parliament? rather narrow

The idea of ​​having a way out was also on everyone's minds. Very narrow door, according to our information at least in the European Parliament. The presidency of the assembly seems, barring any surprises, out of reach of the liberals, the social democrats and Christian democrats having become accustomed to sharing this presidency in two. And the expected score of the liberal group (which could go down from its 3rd place at best) no longer allows it to claim what the Irish liberal Pat Cox had obtained in 2002. But that was another era. Even the presidency of the liberal group seems out of reach for Charles Michel. His party comrades hardly appreciated a certain dilettantism and were not the last to criticize him.

Be a grassroots MP? Not ambitious enough

The same goes for other more prominent positions. The presidency of a parliamentary committee - such as that of Foreign Affairs - depends on the famous D'Hondt rule which organizes the distribution of positions according to the balance of power between the political groups, and seems reserved for the European People's Party (EPP) . What remained was the usual work of a rank-and-file MEP: reports, files, interventions in plenary. But it is difficult for everyone to imagine the President of the European Council getting bogged down in this thankless task. He who is everything, except a files man.

Bounce elsewhere? Limit

There remains the careerist ambition to bounce back into another European position. But the appointment to the European Commission depends on the future Belgian government, which will also come from the polls, at the same time as the European elections. It would cost the Reform Movement (MR), its party, the equivalent of a ministerial post (3). Let us also not forget that for the position of Spitzenkandidat, during the elections, the Renew did not seem to want Charles Michel, preferring another personality, more dynamic and able to bring together the European electorate (cf. Booklet 30.01.2024).

Head of European diplomacy? Not easy

Would Charles Michel have considered becoming High Representative of the EU? Not only that, the double role of vice-president of the Commission would have led to similar difficulties in the context of the future coalition in Belgium. But this hypothesis is extremely fragile if a liberal occupied the post of President of the European Council (Rutte hypothesis) or if, conversely, this post was devolved to liberals (the European Council being occupied by a social democrat). Especially since this position has until now always been occupied by former foreign ministers. What Charles Michel never was. In short, the European future of the person concerned was not automatically facilitated by entering the campaign.

Comment: a certain amateurism

None of the rational explanations given really fit this entry into the electoral campaign. And no more upon withdrawal a few days later. Charles Michel ultimately explained little about it, apart from a few words in the national press or on social networks. But refusing to come and debate it with MEPs in Strasbourg last Wednesday (January 24), due to “ acute lumbago ". Which is not worthy of a democratic debate.

The impression that remains is ultimately that of a certain amateurism and a relative ignorance of the role assigned to the President of the European Council. The withdrawal being just as damaging, if not more, than the entry into the campaign, there remains a bitter taste. That of an error of assessment, more worthy of a Don Quixote fighting against the windmills, and carried away by its blades, than of a d'Artagnan going to war by the light of his fine blade. Damage...

(Nicolas Gros-Verheyde)

1. Machiavellian minds could even think of an indirect gift to Viktor Orban. By allowing him to temporarily occupy the post of President of the European Council, this could flatter and elevate him in the eyes of his national public opinion. And thus obtain some concessions on certain current files.
2. He is not the only one if we listen to Viktor Orban: “ President von der Leyen also has ambitions, so she must show her true colors “, the Hungarian Prime Minister recently indicated on national radio.
3. The appointment of the European Commissioner normally enters into the negotiation of different positions between the parties of a coalition in Belgium. It is worth two points, according to the D'Hondt law used for this distribution (cf. CRISP study 2011).