[Analysis] Emmanuel Macron is spreading the blues in Brussels. French influence weakened
(B2) Forgotten the Sorbonne speech, the June 6 ceremonies, the great and beautiful speeches, the French president today appears largely weakened. Not only in France, but also in European corridors. In question, his own decision to dissolve the National Assembly.
An incomprehensible decision...
When he arrives at the G7 leaders' meeting in Puglia on June 13, then at the European Council on June 17, the welcome Emmanuel Macron will receive will surely no longer be the same as before June 9. France remaining France, he will be received with elegance. But for influence, it's something else. The French president will have a lot to do to convince people of the relevance of his choice to dissolve the National Assembly. Decision considered inconsistent for the European balance and above all incomprehensible!
...that nothing justified
The result of the Renaissance list (14%) is certainly very bad: half as much as the National Rally and almost equal to the PS list (sending the same number of deputies to the European Parliament: 13 elected). But this result was expected and, in a way, anticipated. This is not the first time that a government party has failed in a European vote (election or referendum). This has never led to such a political crisis. Especially since the French centrists retain a notable weight in their group (the first delegation) and include a number of personalities well versed in the issues (N. Loiseau, P. Canfin, C. Grudler, etc.) who will make it possible to compensate for a lower workforce.
...transformed into a major political crisis
By dissolving the National Assembly, the president is shooting himself in the foot. It opens a period of uncertainty. What most Europeans hate. No one knows if France will be governable tomorrow, what the profile of the future assembly, and therefore of the future government, will be. Or rather, everyone senses that this assembly could very well be dark blue like the National Rally. Never has the far-right party been so close to power. No one can predict what the future will be like after July 7. Will Macron play the game of cohabitation or will he prefer to put his mandate as president back into play? and resign?
A European weakness
Almost automatically, the weight of France will be reduced. Both for psychological and political reasons. How can we trust a president who might no longer be in a position to decide the next day, who is demonetized in some way. Especially since Emmanuel Macron made a notable political error. Too confident in his aura, he led a quasi-public campaign against the renewal of Ursula von der Leyen, through the press or via the European Commissioner (1). However, the German – whose party, the EPP, gained a few seats – is now on track to find the votes needed in the European Parliament for its renewal. And no alternative candidate really presents itself.
Woe to the vanquished
Burnt, Thierry Breton will be able to pack his bags (2). A new name must be proposed by Paris: a man or a woman (3). But whatever the personality, within the future European executive, France will not be guaranteed to recover a portfolio as major (internal market, electronics, defense and services) as that held since 2019. We will have to choose subtly the good area. Other countries, such as Italy or Poland in particular, are looking for a more important place.
Double solitude in Brussels
This lost battle is coupled with a certain isolation in the European Council. The Frenchman had already lost the company of his Luxembourgish friend Xavier Bettel, he will lose those of the Dutchman Mark Rutte as well as the Belgian Alexander De Croo, who was severely crushed during the Belgian elections and who presented his resignation to the King. With the liberal “three musketeers” out, the majority in the European Council shifts to the benefit of the conservatives or sovereignists who have become, after the Christian Democrats, the second largest group (read: [Memo Sheet] A European Council on the right).
Political suicide?
Suffice to say that, in an already complicated panorama, the announcement of the dissolution - which appears above all guided by a poorly digested wound of self-esteem - is akin to a mistake, which could permanently weaken the French position. Erased are the beautiful proposals from the Sorbonne speech and other declarations from the landing ceremonies alongside the American Joe Biden or the Ukrainian Volodymyr Zelensky. This real gamble, unless it succeeds with little obvious success, could then appear as a real political suicide.
(Nicolas Gros-Verheyde)
- Never late in sending a dig, through the media, to the President of the Commission, Thierry Breton openly criticized her, last March, on Twitter : “Is it possible to (re)entrust the management of Europe to the EPP for 5 more years, or 25 years in a row? (when) the EPP itself does not seem to believe in its candidate.” The press was also mobilized by the Élysée to indicate how difficult it would be for the Germans to have a majority in Parliament or to impose a Mario Draghi-type alternative.
- It is indeed difficult to see von der Leyen putting up with this company again for five years.
- By Emmanuel Macron or even with the new government resulting from the polls.
