The 28 against Ukraine. Should we sanction? How to help?

(BRUSSELS2) The European Union “ remains ready to respond quickly to any deterioration on the ground”. It was with this rather sibylline phrase that the foreign ministers of the "28" heard indicated on Monday (February 10) that sanctions could be imposed.

Until the meeting of ministers, this sentence had remained, in square brackets, that is to say under discussion, indicating a division between certain States in favor of rapid retaliatory measures and most of the others, rather reluctant, even hostile. The talk was " a as one participant in the meeting admitted, with in mind to insert a prospect of sanctions". It can thus be noted that the very word "sanctions" is not pronounced. And you have to be a diplomatic expert to detect, in this sentence which appears at the head of the conclusions, such a measure which is not yet at the execution stage. In the same way, the notion of a possible financial aid that the Europeans could adopt was “long” discussed and its mention.

Supporters of sanctions

Several countries were pushing for the implementation of measures against Ukrainian officials: the Sweden, Lithuania and Poland in particular thus the United Kingdom or Czech Republic. For the Lithuanian Foreign Minister, Linas Linkevičius, this hardening of the Council's tone is necessary. "If the [Ukrainian] government intervenes or deviates from the democratic standards of the European Union, the EU must be ready to react quickly if necessary, even by introducing restrictive measures." As for his Swedish counterpart, Carl Bildt, he claims to have tried to “contribute to a political, democratic and European solution to the problem” in Ukraine.

Diplomacy first

A large majority of member states were quite reluctant to impose sanctions, including the'Germany, l'Italy l'Austria, Luxembourg, Ireland or France. On the Italian side, it is estimated that “the (ongoing) dialogue must first be brought to a conclusion ". For the Austrian Minister, Sebastian Kurz, “putting in place sanctions makes no sense”. " Maybe you should consider it. (But) for all colleagues, now is not the time “adds his Luxembourg counterpart Jean Asselborn.

At the European Diplomatic Service (EEAS), we also share a certain skepticism at the idea of ​​imposing sanctions. At a time when Europeans are trying to renew the threads of dialogue, “punishing could be counterproductive” a European diplomat points out to B2. " What we are aiming for is the de-escalation of the conflict, the cessation of violence... another commented.

If sanctions, these must be targeted

Actually, " no one wanted immediate and sweeping sanctions as summarized, at the end of the meeting, by Thierry Repentin, the French Minister Delegate for European Affairs (who replaced Laurent Fabius traveling to the United States with President Hollande). The threat of " sanctions if the situation deteriorates is (on the other hand) a clear message to those who would be affected by these sanctions. » These penalties would be targeted ", according to the minister, and could aim " those who would delay the path to democracy from Ukraine. This " strengthening democracy » being an objective of the Europeans

Sanctions, on what basis?

The least of the difficulties in establishing sanctions (freeze of assets and/or visa ban) is also, as noted by B2, to see on what basis to enact these sanctions. In the absence of an international resolution (from the United Nations Security Council), these should therefore be enacted on an autonomous basis by the European Union. This requires having specific and proven facts to reproach named persons, as well as finding a valid reason before the courts. The case law of the European courts, reinforced over the judgments, requires, in fact, a "motivation" if not complete, at least solid.

Financial aid to Ukraine also discussed

On the positive side of the discussion on "sanctions", the "28" also discussed the financial aid that the European Union could provide on this subject. An equally delicate question which also gave rise to a long discussion, with roughly, the same support and the same reservations. “There was a lot of discussion about the possibility of providing financial assistance to Kyiv confirmed the Polish Minister of Foreign Affairs, Radek Sikorski, at the exit.

A principled commitment

In the end, the 28 reiterated a commitment in principle: “ The European Union is ready to continue its efforts, together with the international community and the international financial institutions, to assist Ukraine, within the framework of well-established conditions, in order to find a sustainable way of overcoming its difficult economic situation. (*). Mandate was given to the High Representative and the Commission to continue their efforts in this direction ». Most no amount of financial assistance was discussed by member states.

strictly conditioned

As a diplomat at B2 points out, this European and international aid remains conditional on the respect of several criteria. The key word in the sentence of the Council conclusions is "in line with well-established conditions". " Ukraine has many possibilities for obtaining international financing, in particular from the International Monetary Fund, the European Investment Bank or the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development. Other options could be developed with (European) macroeconomic support or using European Commission resources ” we detail on the Polish side. But, to receive help, Ukraine must adopt reforms. An economy that avoids reform will not receive money “, explained the Polish Minister Radoslaw (Radek) Sikorski.

The fear of corruption

Several countries, however, have some doubts about pouring millions of euros into a country where corruption reigns. A concern reflected by the Luxembourg Minister for Foreign Affairs, Jean Asselborn, in front of the journalists. " When we see that a former Prime Minister (NB: Azarov) has left (abroad) and that there is strong suspicions that he is very rich ", It is " difficult for western countries to invest capital or large sums " in the country. And to add: We have great doubts about the authorities in power in Ukraine. » Read also on B2: Judge Azarov?

Expert support

European support could therefore be concentrated, in a rather practical way, on helping Ukraine, to " circumvent certain trade restrictions " or " find new markets for Ukrainian products,” do we underline on the Polish side. Europe's readiness, mentioned in the conclusions, to " provide expert support in areas deemed useful (**) a priori concerns democratic reforms but could also concern the field of economic reforms. " We must be able to provide experts or commercial support, in order to prevent (possible) boycotts of Ukrainian products from achieving their political objectives” so considers Radek Sikorski.

(Nicolas Gros-Verheyde and Loreline Merelle)

(*) the EU is ready to further pursue its efforts with the international community and international financial institutions to assist Ukraine, in line with well-established conditions, to find a sustainable way out of its difficult economic situation

(**) The EU stands ready to provide expert support in all areas judged useful and encourages Ukraine also to draw on the expertise of international organizations such as the Council of Europe, the OSCE and the United Nations

Download here conclusions.