Doesn't touch my budget. Defense supporters step up in Europe and the USA

(B2) The significant needs required to alleviate the coronavirus crisis, whether in health or economic terms, could weigh on defense tomorrow. It is a serious fear across the Atlantic but also in Europe

Red alert in the United States

In the United States, alarmist remarks are multiplying, at the highest level of the Pentagon. " I fear that the massive injection into the economy by Congress and the executive, of almost 3000 trillion dollars, will deviate us from this path ", just as worries about the growth of the national debt and do not stir up " reduction in defense budgets “, thus recognized the American Minister of Defense Mark Esper during a webinar organized on Tuesday (May 5) by the Brookings Institution, reported by the site National Defense. And to warn: If we want to continue to increase readiness, make this change to implement the [national defense strategy], etc., we need 3-5% annual real growth ».

Don't touch my defense budget

A point of view relayed by experts from think-tanks and some deputies, belonging to what is called the clan of hawks according to the US online newspaper Politico. " This will absolutely damage the plans of the Department of Defense to fund the National Defense Strategy worries Mackenzie Eaglen (American Enterprise Institute, a conservative think-tank). " The real driver of defense spending is what our adversaries are doing “adds Mike Turner, elected Republican of Ohio (one of the main industrial states and cradle in Dayton of a defense and aeronautics hub) and member of the Armed Services Committee of the House of Representatives. " We had a virus that broke out, but not necessarily peace and goodwill. [...] I think in the short term, even if these deficits are crippling, no one is going to look to the Ministry of Defense to try to balance the coronavirus »

Concern at NATO and in Europe

This possible repercussion of the crisis on defense budgets was also one of the major points of the ritual presentation of the annual report by the Secretary General of the Atlantic Alliance, Jens Stoltenberg, in mid-March (read: We must continue to invest in defense, despite the Coronavirus, says Jens Stoltenberg). And manufacturers are trying to step up to defend their business, arguing that they are a driving force in reviving the economy and jobs.

Industrialists are stepping up

The representatives of the three branches of French industrialists, Stéphane Mayer, for land (GICAT), Éric Trappier, for aeronautics (GIFAS) and Hervé Guillou, for naval (GICAN), all three pleaded in this direction during a hearing at the National Assembly on April 23, alerting to a " risk of loss of export market share for the French defense industry. They asked not only for the preservation of the investments provided for in the 2019-2025 military programming law and the maintenance of the allocations from the European Defense Fund, but also for short-term aid measures.

National deputies also

The defense industry must be recognized as " essential to the nation “said the president of the national defense commission, relaying these grievances. We must protect ourselves from any temptation to reduce investments by the Armed Forces, not only in the name of France's defense interests but also to contribute effectively and quickly to maintaining and developing employment “ she said according to the communicated.

A budgetary fear for 2021-2027

In Europe, the fear is identical but is more deaf for the moment. " Defense must not be forgotten and the revised version of the multiannual financial framework [for 2021-2027] must be an opportunity to reaffirm the ambition of the European Defense Fund have thus just affirmed several European researchers (IRIS, EUISS, Royal Elcano Institute, IAI...), in a tribune published by ARES at the end of April.

A boomerang effect like in 2008

In a parallel with the financial crisis of 2008, they fear a drop in military spending and therefore “ a significant drop in investments ": " uA drying up of research and development funds would jeopardize the launch of new programs at a time when Europe intends to develop the next generation of combat aircraft, battle tanks, frigates and other essential capabilities to maintain a technological and operational advance ».

Commentary: European defense in a delicate position

If across the Atlantic, the combined pressure of industrialists, think-tanks and legislators could temporize a certain reduction in a national budget which has important industrial implications, we can fear a darker scenario in Europe.

Nothing recorded for the European Defense Fund

The future European multiannual financial framework for 2021-2027 is still far from being approved (read: The special European summit on the future budgetary framework (MFF) ended in failure. 2 days for nothing). And the latest figure attributed to the European Defense Fund of seven billion euros over seven years (read: MFF 2021-2027. The 'Michel' proposal: (a little) disappointing for the defense), is not at all recorded and still very provisional. Deemed insufficient before the coronavirus crisis, it could well represent an unattainable nirvana and be scaled back.

Three hypotheses: between the budgetary jump and the powerful plane

At the budgetary level, three hypotheses can be put forward. Firstly, the States in a European surge realize their insufficiency to act separately and agree on a European budget (ideal but very optimistic vision). Another hypothesis, the combination of naturally stingy States and countries facing considerable national expenditure, and disappointed with the European response, results in reducing the ambitions of the multiannual financial framework for 2021-2027, in a limited or more significant way (pessimistic vision ). Last hypothesis, the national divisions are increased, even more than before the crisis, the States are unable to agree, and the current multi-annual financial framework is renewed as it is (cautious vision).

A European defense that is struggling to prove its effectiveness

In any case, the justification for a european defense fund, in the face of other identified needs (public health, economy, etc.) could well be more difficult to meet. European defense is today placed in an impregnable dilemma: it has not yet really proven its effectiveness. Capability projects carried out since 2010, within the European Defense Agency and within the framework of PESCO (read: Only a third of PESCO projects could succeed. The others still at the bottle stage or even stillborn), either have not been completed, or seem disconnected from the reality of the real shortcomings of the European armies or too little visible or important to have a noticeable effect.

A (very) weak reaction capacity

Successful projects (EATC, Airbus A400M, etc.) have often been outside of a specific European framework. As for its operational capacities, they remain very limited and have not really been highlighted during the coronavirus crisis. It will take more than a platform and public opinion shaken by the recent crisis to make them aware of devoting seven billion euros to European defence, rather than to public health... The tendency to disperse projects, without any real strategic impact, and the lack of will on the part of the Member States to really tackle the shortcomings observed, are a recurring shortcoming of European defence. Except to hope for a new crisis, which brings the cursor back to strategic interests.

(Nicolas Gros-Verheyde, with Emmanuelle Stroesser)