(B2) The goal of delivering one million heavy munitions to Ukraine will not be achieved. It must be recognized. The Europeans have not been able to keep the commitment they made to kyiv. A strategic setback with serious consequences.
(photo: Rheinmetall)
Promised as hard as iron
The Europeans had promised in March 2023 to deliver to Ukraine within a year a million heavy munitions – all calibers (especially 152 or 155 mm) and missiles. A figure put somewhat on a “wet finger”, without knowing if we could really keep this commitment. But that was not incongruous. It corresponded to a very concrete need of the Ukrainians and to a concerted effort with the other Allies (Americans, British, etc.). A promise written in black and white in a declaration of the 27 confirmed in a European regulation, clearly mentioning the urgency of the situation.
A notable emergency
« Given the situation in Ukraine and the urgent needs of this country in matters of defense, and in particular in ammunition, the Council agreed, on March 20, 2023, on a three-tiered approach aimed at providing Ukraine with one million artillery shells as part of a joint effort over the next twelve months. It is agreed to deliver emergency to Ukraine surface-to-surface munitions and artillery munitions as well as, if requested, missiles from existing stocks or re-prioritization of existing orders » recalls the ASAP regulations.
One year later...
The account is not there. And far from it! According to the own figures given by the High Representative during the informal Defense this Wednesday (January 31) in Brussels. In November, we were around 300.000 munitions delivered (read: what to remember from the Foreign Affairs Council), 330.000 today according to Josep Borrell the High Representative of the EU. And just under 200.000 additional munitions would be provided by March. Or around 520.000 in the spring. By the end of the year, I promise, we will reach the famous million rounds of ammunition. Around 630.000 munitions are in fact planned according to production contracts and announced for the next nine months. In short, honor would be safe (1).
An increasing delivery rate, but still insufficient
But this refrain does not resist the mathematical notion. If we take a monthly delivery ratio, today's pace of 33.000 rounds per month would rise to 43.000 per month on average in the spring and 70.000 per month by the end of the year. Which means that we will still be at 840.000 munitions annually at the end of the year. The promise of one million munitions per year will not be achieved until mid-2025. That's a year late! Crucial in wartime.
Insufficient to cope
In the meantime, Ukraine will have had to undergo at least two offensives: those of late winter - spring, and that of summer - autumn. Periods conducive to extreme consumption of large caliber ammunition. If the consumption of forces is of the order of defense secrecy, the "norm" indicated by Ukraine is a consumption of around 2000 on calm days up to 7-10.000 shells on less calm days. The Russians can increase their capacity to 10-20.000 per day. That is to say that in 2024, the European monthly allocation will only make it possible to survive in calm periods. It will not last more than a few days with a harsh offensive! We are far from the European commitment to support decisively. Suffice to say that if kyiv only counts on the Europeans, defeat is assured.
Europeans unable to compensate for a US failure...
Of course, the European Union is not the only one to supply Ukraine with ammunition. In addition to the United States, this is the case of the United Kingdom, Norway and Canada in particular (within NATO) and other partners (Australia, New Zealand, Japan). But if the American effort slows down further (which is not a simple theoretical hypothesis), the reality appears starkly: the Europeans (British included) are incapable of taking over. The famous “war economy” promised by several officials (Emmanuel Macron in the lead) is not there. Far from there.
And fall into the war economy
It is precisely to this inability to switch to a “war economy” that we owe this disastrous result. Reorienting production and increasing production capacities would have made it possible for two years to begin rebuilding stocks and delivering more ammunition and equipment to the Ukrainian forces. But Member States and manufacturers have, for the most part, preferred to continue serving their export customers as a priority. In 2023, 40% of industrial defense production was exported to third countries and around ten states, including France and Germany, opposed priority orders for munitions and missiles that the Commission wanted to introduce into the European regulations. They have chosen short-term industrial profits to the detriment of long-term strategic interests.
A serious strategic error
This failure is not trivial. By having promised one million shells to Ukraine by spring 2024, the Europeans were sending, beyond their public opinions, an implicit message to the Kremlin. The Europeans are there, not just in words (or through economic sanctions), but also present to train Ukrainian soldiers, arm them and provide the Ukrainian forces with what they need to respond to the Russian offensive.
A wet finger figure justified
Despite appearances, this figure of one million was not chosen at random. Along with the other allies (each one million shells), it made it possible to ensure the durability of the Ukrainian response to Russian forces. By only half achieving this objective, the Europeans not only offer the Russians a possibility of victory. But it’s also a political message: go for it! Go West! We do not have the means to do more. Dangerous, very dangerous!
(Nicolas Gros-Verheyde, with Olivier Jehin)
Production that accelerates... for export
On the production side, things are improving when you listen to Thierry Breton, the Commissioner for Industry and Defense: production capacity has increased by 30% within the European Union. From one million in the spring (annual rate), production was to increase to 1,4 million munitions (annual rate) by the end of the year.
But beware of confusion. This figure does not only target deliveries to Ukraine. It is an industrial capacity which makes it possible to fulfill three objectives: replenish the stocks of European armies (a little emptied), supply export contracts (with increasing demand worldwide) and deliver to Ukraine.
Two important problems remain.
On the one hand, despite all the efforts of everyone, a vicious circle has not really been broken: manufacturers wait for firm orders over a long period of time to increase production in a sustainable manner; States are waiting for production to increase before placing orders.
On the other hand, the re-prioritization of export contracts has not been resolved. Manufacturers say it: they cannot ignore what constitutes one of the points of economic balance in their industry. They also cannot go back on signed and registered contracts, unless they pay a "fine" for delay, or even risk termination of the contract for failure. No State has thus committed itself (and therefore the European Union) to ensure pre-emption of the production of these companies which remain private.
As long as you believe in it. There is no objective evidence to support these figures. The European authorities have also run their calculators to the maximum and asked the Member States to reassess their figures. Just to avoid collective humiliation.
Chief editor of the B2 site. Graduated in European law from the University of Paris I Pantheon Sorbonne and listener to the 65th session of the IHEDN (Institut des Hautes Etudes de la Défense Nationale. Journalist since 1989, founded B2 - Bruxelles2 in 2008. EU/NATO correspondent in Brussels for Sud-Ouest (previously West-France and France-Soir).
