Commission 2019. The candidates for the post of High Representative are not rushing. Six possible and eventual names?

(B2 - exclusive) If there are still a few months before the possible decision-making (June or July 2019) and taking office (1 November 2019), candidates for the post of High Representative of the EU for Foreign Affairs remain discreet. B2 has detected three potential candidates fulfilling the main written or unwritten criteria for this position (1) within the three major European parties likely to form a coalition following the elections

To say that we are not rushing to the gate to replace Federica Mogherini is an understatement. Does the function no longer attract certain political leaders in search of 'economic', less stressful and more 'profitable' positions in terms of influence? Is it governmental instability or the existence of national deadlines in many countries that affect any desire to occupy the position? Or is it the complex situation with Brexit and the absence of any clarity on the future majority that annihilates all will? Maybe a bit of all three. What is certain is that the last campaign in 2014 was more conducive to announced or suggested candidates. Very quickly, from June 2013 and during the fall of 2013, several interested candidates had expressed their interest (read: Elections 2014. All candidates for the post of High Representative?). For various reasons, they had not seen their application selected, but they had opened the ball! Today, no one wants to start a job considered 'impossible'.

A lack of interest that is only apparent

The economy rather than foreign affairs?

Some countries that could claim the position because they have notable diplomacy (France, Italy, the Netherlands, etc.) seem uninterested. They say it mezzo voice. Rome thus criticizes its representative for not having time to defend the country's position on the main economic issues and is more profiled for this type of position in the next European executive. The Hague has the same interest in positions with less important 'radiation' (in appearance), but just as much decision-making in reality. And its Prime Minister Mark Rutte seems to have other interests. France is looking elsewhere. It's a reality: the High Representative is so busy with foreign affairs that he is not very available on other 'economic' or domestic policy subjects, primary competences of the European Commission.

A complementary piece to the head stations

In the puzzle of the leading positions after the Presidents of the European Commission and of the European Council, or even after the heads of the European Parliament, the post of High Representative appears rather to be a complementary piece. In the last two mandates, it has thus been reserved for a woman, a social democrat, to compensate for a political configuration dominated by men from the European People's Party (EPP) (2).

Customs, but no written or unwritten rule

The designation of Catherine Ashton and then that of Federica Mogherini are a clear illustration of this. But this usage in no way responds to a rule, even one that is not written (3). There are other vice-presidential positions within the Commission that can achieve this political and gender balance. The criteria governing his appointment (political colour, sex, profile) will therefore depend on the parties making up the ruling coalition at European level. (Also read: The criteria for appointing a 'good' High Representative)

Three possible candidates and one surprise candidate

Ursula von der Leyen (Christian Democrat, Germany)

It could be one of the favorites in the position. The current German minister has served her time as head of German defence. The one who was, for a time, perceived as a possible rival of Angela Merkel no longer has any hope on this side. A new European future would allow her to bounce back in a field, European affairs, where she is comfortable and has obtained certain results. As Minister, she never ceased to affirm the need for Europe in matters of defence, whether for the implementation of the mutual assistance clause (Article 42-7), the creation permanent structured cooperation or engagement in operations.

For several months, moreover, it has been more present at European level. Pros: She's a woman. And there are currently few in the high-level ranks. She is multilingual. What is appreciable in this job. She has a very clear experience in defense matters, and more generally in geopolitics. She ticks the 'large country' box, an unstated criterion being to reserve the post of High Representative for a large country (Spain, Italy and the United Kingdom having occupied the post, and France seeming to pass its own , Germany's logic could prevail). Berlin has never made a secret of its desire to have a position in view in the next Commission. In the absence of the head of the European executive (if Mr. Weber is not selected), the post of High Representative would be the right compromise.

Handicaps: she is from the same party, the EPP, as a possible/probable President of the Commission (but there are other vice-presidential positions which could allow this balance). It should be noted in passing that, apart from the post of High Representative, it is not excluded that Von der Leyen could occupy the portfolio of Commissioner 'Defence and Security', even more suited to his dual profile (European and defence).

Miroslav Lajcak (Social Democrat, Slovakia)

The current Slovak Foreign Minister has never hidden, even if he does it very discreetly, his interest in European foreign policy. According to our own sources, such a hypothesis is not excluded in Bratislava, where we rather think about timing. Mr. Lajcak submitted his resignation at the end of December, in protest against the government's failure to sign the UN pact on migration. Resignation refused because the government wanted to keep its powers to hold the presidency of the OSCE this year. A position that requires, according to one of his advisers, a " full commitment ».

Disabilities: a rather limited knowledge of other areas of the world (Africa and the Middle East in particular). And Slovak diplomacy does not have a " long range ". Advantages: it ticks the 'Eastern Europe' box when needed. He is an experienced man, well known to his fellow ministers. He has an excellent knowledge of the close neighborhood (Balkans, Eastern Partnership), priority areas for Europe. His nationality could be an advantage if you don't think you should come from a country that is too committed on the international scene. Rather than the post of High Representative, he could make an excellent Commissioner for Enlargement, a sort of Deputy High Representative for the Neighbourhood.

Margot Wallström (Social Democrat, Sweden)

Current Minister of Foreign Affairs in Sweden, Mr. Wallström has held both national and European posts (European Commissioner for the Environment from September 1999 to November 2004 in the Prodi Commission, then Commissioner for Institutional Relations and Communication Strategy from 2004 to 2010 in the Barroso I Commission).

Advantage: it ticks many of the boxes of a 'good' High Representative. But she can be an important part (as Deputy Prime Minister) of a government with precarious stability. She has experience, but is not very young either (65 years old). And the job of High Representative is particularly exhausting.

"XY" (Social Democrat, Spain)

It could finally be Madrid which proposes a 'surprise' candidate, making it possible to complete the future European system. No Spanish official, even under the seal of 'Off' wants to confirm this hypothesis. But no one denies it either. And in the corridors, one could think of a Spanish positioning which wants to climb, taking advantage of the European departure, at the level of 'big countries'. The Spaniards can, if necessary, surf on the successful experience of Javier Solana at the head of European diplomacy, in the period doors Lisbon Treaty.

Three very possible underdogs

Other names may be mentioned. The first, Didier Reynders, meets a number of criteria, but no longer displays availability. The second, Frans Timmermans, is very often quoted in the 'bubble European Union', but he clearly has a number of handicaps to make his candidacy credible today. The third, Alexander Stubb, candidate for many positions, has little chance.

Didier Reynders (Liberal, Belgium)

The Belgian Didier Reynders could have been an excellent High Representative. His recent accumulation within the minority Belgian government with the function of Minister of Defense enabled him to position himself on both sides of the function of High Representative. He has the required experience, knowledge of European files and mechanical workings. As Belgium also has a seat on the United Nations Security Council during this period, this would give it additional relational leverage at the international level. He belongs to the liberal party.

Disability: the Belgian Minister has announced his candidacy for the post of Secretary General at the Council of Europe. A more discreet position which gives him a significant role of influence. Now, this application must be approved. The interested party does not exclude in case of failure or other event, to remain either on the national scene, or (in a less assertive way) on the European scene. He confirmed it mezzo voice to B2. The hypothesis of the entry of the ALDE into the vast majority could promote the emergence of one of its representatives within the system.

Frans Timmermans (Social Democrat, Netherlands)

Nominated candidate of the European Socialists in the elections as SpitzenCandidate, Frans Timmermans could claim to preside over the European Parliament, for half the period, alternating with an EPP or Liberal candidate (in the event of a tripartite). But he was Minister of Foreign Affairs and also never hid his first love for diplomacy. His name is often cited as one of the potential candidates.

However, he has serious handicaps: his party (the PvDA) not participating in the government, the government of The Hague has to appoint him as a member of the European Commission. What seems for the moment excluded. This is a 'slight' problem, all the more important if the (liberal) Prime Minister Mark Rutte decides to present his candidacy for the European Council. The Dutch ambition for the Commission seems rather to concentrate on a position of economic value, of the type of the one in competition occupied by Neelie Kroes, or another position.

Alexander Stubb (Christian Democrat, Finland)

Former Prime Minister of Finland, and former Minister of Foreign Affairs, Alexander Stubb has been quoted in so many positions that the one who was previously a geek, a former hustle of received ideas, has worn himself out. He himself does not claim to be interested in himself; " I am Vice President of the European Investment Bank he says wisely. Even if he remains open to other possibilities, if necessary.

(Nicolas Gros-Verheyde)

1. Lire: A new High Representative, the parameters of the appointment
   What will be the role of the High Representative tomorrow? A subtle dose...
2. Despite significant ambitions, the weakness of social democracy in Europe would prevent him from claiming a top-ranking position at the head of the European Commission. The European People's Party (EPP) has made clear its ambition and its preference to keep this function in the future distribution which will force it to define its priorities. He will no longer be able to put one of his own in three of the four main posts (European Council, European Parliament, European Commission) like today.
3. The High Representative of the EU is statutorily Vice-President of the Commission, but he is not necessarily the Prime. Jean-Claude Juncker proved this by setting up the college and appointing another first vice-president (Frans Timmermans) than the High Representative.